Harvey expected to produce 'historic' flooding

"Xyl0c41n3" (i-am-xyl0c41n3) 08/24/2017 at 13:09 • Filed to: None

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This image from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite taken Thursday at 8:45 a.m. shows the location of Tropical Storm Harvey as it approaches the Texas coast.

Folks from Corpus Christi to Houston are expected to be deluged by Hurricane Harvey as it makes landfall Friday evening, reports the National Hurricane Center via the National Weather Service (NWS) Thursday.

The slow moving storm began to organize rapidly in the overnight hours Wednesday, and will likely arrive at the Texas coast as a Category 3 storm with winds of up to 111 mph. It’s expected to make landfall between Aransas Bay and Copano Bay just north of Corpus Christi said a NWS meteorlogist in a phone interview today.

If it maintains its strength, Harvey will be the first major tropical weather system to strike the Texas coast since 2005. Current models show the storm making landfall in the Coastal Bend and moving northwestward into the Texas Hill Country before doubling back towards the Gulf of Mexico near Matagorda Bay.

Harvey is expected to remain a Category 1 storm as it begins moving inland, the NWS meteorologist said. “(It) looks like it’s going to be approaching the coastline 8 p.m. on a Friday night. It should be just inland… 8 o’clock in the morning on Saturday,” he said.

The storm could dump in excess of 15 inches of rain on the already beleaguered Houston region, which saw torrential flooding earlier this month. An additional 15 inches or more of rain would cause “a historic flood,” the meteorologist said.

Hurricane warnings are currently in effect for the following counties: Bee, Goliad, Jim Wells, Live Oak and Victoria.

Additionally, the following counties are under a hurricane warning and a storm surge warning: Aransas, Calhoun, Kleberg, Nueces, Refugio and San Patricio.

Storm surge will potentially rise to 7 feet above ground level, the NWS reports. The surge will cause significant damage to structures along Texas’ barrier islands.

This morning, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott activated the State Operations Center and declared a state of disaster for 30 counties. “Preemptively declaring a state of disaster will allow Texas to quickly deploy resources for the emergency response effort in anticipation of the storm’s hazardous conditions,” Abbott said via a statement.

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For all my Oppo friends in the Houston/Galveston and the Coastal Bend regions, please stay safe. Please evacuate. Get out of the path of this storm. It’s looking like it’s going to cause an incredible amount of mayhem and damage.

benjrblant > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:14

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As the old rule of hurricanes goes, Run from the water or hide from the wind.

Jayhawk Jake > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:24

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Houston gets flooded all the time. I remember Allison in 2003, that was pretty bad. Also all the blue tarps I saw flying home from school for years after Ike.

My parent’s house is high enough that flood water will get close to the door but usually doesn’t get high enough to be problematic, other than trapping them in the house until it subsides.

E90M3 > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:30

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I thought the floods of 2015 were bad. Makes me glad I don’t live in Corpus, I wouldn’t want to deal with all of that. Fingers crossed that we don’t get another hurricane in Savannah this year.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Jayhawk Jake 08/24/2017 at 13:32

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I lived there when Allison came to visit. We had 23" of rain just north of our house. We thought it would be fine and it looked good for a while, but someone left a sofa in the ditch and it clogged the main drain from our neighborhood. End result? Our house flooded.

The thing that made me mad was the boneheads in their trucks, pushing waves into my house. I can handle being flooded. I get pissed when waves are knocking on my front door.

Arrivederci > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:36

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Any impacts for the DFW area? My sister-in-law lives there. I’d imagine it’s far enough inland to just get some rain and wind. Hopefully all the Houston and coastal Oppos (and their rides) in that area stay safe.

Verdog ~ manual Bro, Bro - HellHawk Equipped > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:39

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CenTex here and we are looking at 7-10", but watching the Rapid Intensification... that might be low. If you are on the coast, LEAVE!

EL_ULY > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:41

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estoy chido, bring it on

DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:41

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https://spacecityweather.com/harvey-nearly-a-hurricane-updating-the-major-threats-to-texas/

I get a lot of my local weather news from here. They’re very informative about the situation. High wind won’t be so much of a factor here as heavy rain will be. I think certain parts of the city are going get worse flooding than the memorial day flooding we had a couple years ago. But really its impossible to say.

No evacuation orders have been given, and I live on the 3rd floor so I’m not super worried, as my area doesn’t really flood. We have plenty of water and are picking up more non-perishable food, just in case.

I still plan on going to work tomorrow as the worst won’t arrive till Saturday/Sunday. I think the best thing to do is not to panic and to be ready. The panic from Rita created some really bad situations for those who actually needed to evacuate, and Rita ended up missing the Houston metro area anyway.

CKeffer > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:41

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Yup, this weekend, and possibly the beginning of next week is going to suck. My neighborhood is high enough that I’m not worried about my house flooding, but I’m pretty sure I’ll be working from home on Monday since a lot of the roads between me and the office flood at the drop of a hat. I’m just hoping we don’t lose power for any extended amount of time. On the upside, we’ve got food & water to last us for a week, and will be picking up the essentials (read whiskey) today after work, so the wife and I should be just fine.

Jayhawk Jake > TheRealBicycleBuck 08/24/2017 at 13:44

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In the years following Allison the city (Bellaire) decided to repave one of the streets by us and while working on it discovered there was a storm drain in the original plans that was never installed. They put one in and it stopped flooding for “normal” storms like it used to, now only flooding badly in these larger events.

victor > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 13:45

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How much do you think that this extreme weather is driven by climate change? Has it affected frequency, or severity?

TheRealBicycleBuck > EL_ULY 08/24/2017 at 13:51

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You sound like my in-laws. They are refusing to leave.

CKeffer > DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back 08/24/2017 at 13:54

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Yeah, the flooding is really going to suck if it stalls out, like they are saying there is a good chance for it to, and it just parks on top of us dumping rain.

CKeffer > Arrivederci 08/24/2017 at 13:55

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Nothing in the Dallas forecast, and honestly they are far enough north that they should be fine. There might be some minor scattered storms that crop up due to this system there, but nothing major.

Straightsix9904 > DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back 08/24/2017 at 13:59

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I read that the winds will “push” the bayou waters and not let them drain, making this a worse situation

I’m getting kind of nervous. My boss is having me “work from home” tomorrow. My townhouse starts on the second floor, so I’m only nervous about my cars that I will probably move to a parking garage.

Flamingo83 > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 14:08

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Stay safe people. TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN!

Flamingo83 > Arrivederci 08/24/2017 at 14:09

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From what I have been hearing it’s scattered storms.

Flamingo83 > victor 08/24/2017 at 14:11

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Frequency for sure. Houston is getting flooded in places that only flooded in the Hundred Years Flood. And all the warm water is upping the intensity of storms.

DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back > CKeffer 08/24/2017 at 14:12

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I imagine the usual areas inside the loop (Meyerland, Bellaire, all along buffalo and bray’s bayou), the area around addicks reservoir, and richmond/rosenberg will get flooded pretty bad. And I don’t think any major highways feeder roads are gonna be super safe for about a day or two. maybe some power outages. But that’s all I’m expecting. We just stay indoors and wait it out. Best outcome for everyone.

DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back > Straightsix9904 08/24/2017 at 14:14

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I know the bayous are full at the moment, so if you live inside the loop near any bayous I’d definitely move the cars somewhere up high.

Straightsix9904 > DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back 08/24/2017 at 14:19

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I live in midtown. My townhouse hasn’t flooded since january, during a rain that lasted a couple hours. I’m 90% sure we’ll be good if it lasts a couple days

Hello, America: Never Fuck a Republican > DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back 08/24/2017 at 14:19

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Here in New Orleans we had a slow moving Cat 1 come through in...2011? Hurricane Isaac. It just like STALLED over us and rained and rained and rained. It was kind of surreal. We fared OK but you know, that can always be a combination of things going right so be careful. Sending you good vibes from the east!

Hello, America: Never Fuck a Republican > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 14:22

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Multi-hurricane veteran here. If you are in the area and haven’t been through a hurricane yet, go get supplies, don’t do anything stupid, move your car to high ground, and if it’s not that bad and it was all for naught, I’ll still think you’re cool. I’m keeping you guys in my thoughts this weekend <3

Straightsix9904 > victor 08/24/2017 at 14:24

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I can’t speak to climate change all too well, but Frequency and severity has definetly been impacted by construction. We are building so much so close that there is a ton of impermeable surfaces. This over taxes the sewer and drainage. Also, at one point in time they designed places to store storm water to mitigate overtaxing the evacuation system. This turned it to be a bad idea, as the best idea is to get all water out of the way as soon as possible.

CKeffer > DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back 08/24/2017 at 14:24

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Sounds about right. We’re just south of the Woodlands, so I’m not terribly worried about things. Like you, we’re just planning to chill in the house all weekend, which works for me as it’ll give me time to fix the droopy “eyeball” AC vents on the Miata, get some work done on my freelance project, and get some play time in on the new “Uncharted” game that got delivered yesterday.....unless the power is out, then I’ll only get to do one of those.

fintail > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 14:29

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Meanwhile in Seattle, we are on the cusp of a weekend averaging in the upper 70s, dry, partly to mostly sunny.

Violet Baudelaire > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 14:29

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Adding in extra warnings for southern Louisiana and New Orleans - we are likely to not get as heavy a rainfall as Texas from this but keeping in mind that our pump system is currently barely functional it has potential to be way more devastating here.

DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back > Hello, America: Never Fuck a Republican 08/24/2017 at 14:30

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I appreciate it. You bring up a very good point, anything can happen and its good not to e stubborn. We’ll stay ready, but I’m not anticipating much.

DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back > Straightsix9904 08/24/2017 at 14:32

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Dang dude, well stay safe, be smart.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Straightsix9904 08/24/2017 at 14:51

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Watersheds are negatively impacted at less than 10% impervious cover. Once it hits 10%, the runoff curves are essentially linear for large rainfall events.

Local storage does work, but only up to the designed event. If they design for a 100-year storm, it shouldn’t be expected to mitigate for a 500-year event.

Getting all of the water “out of the way as soon as possible” ignores downstream effects. It is better to have local storage everywhere, but nobody wants water standing in their yard, so they all work to flush it downstream.

The Woodlands is an excellent example of this problem. One of my professors was a consultant for the original development team. As originally conceived, every yard was supposed to hold water. To support this, there weren’t any ditches and the curbs were set higher than the yards. After the first few rain events, the first residents set about “fixing” the problem with their flooding yards by bringing in dirt. The developer had to rebuild the first roads in order to handle the influx of water. Those residents made it clear that true local storage was unacceptable and their original water management plans were reworked to provide for regional storage.

The Harris County Flood Control District has developed large regional storage areas to help mitigate stormwater events. https://www.hcfcd.org/our-programs/stormwater-quality-program/

kcunning > Hello, America: Never Fuck a Republican 08/24/2017 at 15:06

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I have never understood the logic of “but what if I do this minor amount of work and then nothing happens?” Like, it’s a trip to the store. You were going to do a Target run anyway.

Carisi_Swagger > CKeffer 08/24/2017 at 15:53

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What about San Antonio? I just moved here and I’m not sure what to expect.

CKeffer > Carisi_Swagger 08/24/2017 at 16:06

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looks like y’all are under tropical storm advisory, and a flash flood watch. My advice: today, go get a case or two of bottled water, and food for a few days (not much different than you normally would, though I’d add in some stuff that doesn’t have to stay cold in case you lose power), and then just stay home unless absolutely necessary once the storms start. Unless your area is prone to flooding, you should be fine. I’d also add in that bringing in anything from outside you don’t want getting soaked or blowing away is always a good idea, as well as maybe grabbing some emergency candles and checking the batteries in any flashlights you may have. Beyond that, there’s not really much that you need to do.

BLCKSTRM > Xyl0c41n3 08/24/2017 at 16:20

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We have friends who drove down to Mustang from Austin yesterday - and they’re currently planning to just wait out the storm.

I just don’t get that kind of mentality.

It’s not the thrill-seeker mentality, it’s the “I’m a princess and NO ONE - not even a hurricane - is going to ruin my weekend” mentality. Know when to say when!

DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back > BLCKSTRM 08/24/2017 at 16:34

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This is really insane. Ignoring mandatory evacuations are how people die. I mean, after Katrina and Ike and countless other storms, you think people would learn their lesson but nooooooo...

People are gonna die in this storm. Lets just face the facts. People always die in major hurricanes. So my question is, do you really want to take the chance it could be you?

facw > kcunning 08/24/2017 at 17:42

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I was going to do a grocery run but couldn’t get in the parking lot. Places are mobbed.

NJAnon > EL_ULY 08/24/2017 at 18:25

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You know el_uly your avatar photo may need to be changed to the cookie monster but with a scared face. :P

You’re going to fight the hurricane like Roku tried fighting that volcano?

EL_ULY > NJAnon 08/24/2017 at 19:01

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exactly like that lol :]

I actually got my R/C truck ready to run at the parking lot that floods to see if I can drive on water. AWD brushless Traxxas :]

Dr. Sattler > Flamingo83 08/24/2017 at 19:32

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Part of that also has to do with the fact that developers are fucking morons and will put concrete across everything. There’s no profit in flood plains.

facw > DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back 08/24/2017 at 21:26

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Brays Bayou is fortunately pretty much empty at the moment, just a few inches of water at the bottom of the channel. Doesn’t take much to fill it though, I’m hoping the widening work they’ve been doing will be effective at preventing floods.